then gave Canada a two-goal lead with a power-play goal

in News 30.10.2019 06:32
von wh3171 • 195 Beiträge

From Jack Johnson to David Bolland and from Jakub Voracek to Mikael Backlund, they are the punching bags and poster boys of analytics. Clearance Nike Air Max 270 . TSN.cas Travis Yost provides his lists of the top 10 in each category and why, in particular, Andrew MacDonald, Ryan Callahan, Chris Tanev and Jimmy Howard deserve to be singled out. Analytic Poster Boys: Players whose actual value exceeds perceived value 1. F Jakub Voracek, Phi: Excellent scorer, quietly a massive positive possession player at even-strength. 2. D Marc-Edouard Vlasic, SJ: Blueline rock has morphed into reliable first-pairing type at reasonable cost. 3. F Max Pacioretty, Mon: Only Ovechkin, Kane & Neal had more shot attempts than Pacioretty last 3 years. 4. F Patrice Bergeron, Bos: Almost certainly the best two-way forward in the sport. Enough said. 5. D Mark Giordano, Cgy: Giordano led Calgary to respectable offensive zone time numbers in Norris-calibre 2013-2014. 6. F Benoit Pouliot, Edm: Among 16 forwards to have Goal% in excess of 60% over last 3 years. Same class as Toews & Crosby. 7. G Jimmy Howard, Det: Excellent even-strength goaltender who looks like lock to bounce back in 2014-2015. 8. D Chris Tanev, Van: Numbers suggest reliable, effective (and underrated) top-four defender. 9. F Mathieu Perreault, Wpg: Quality possession player with gift for generating shot attempts in home plate scoring area. 10. F Mikael Backlund, Cgy: Only 1000-plus minute forward on Flames to record better-than-even Corsi% (51.4%) last 3 years. Analytic Punching Bags: Players whose perceived value exceeds actual value. 1. D Jack Johnson, CBJ: Columbus significantly better team with JJ off the ice since assuming top-four role. 2. D Andrew MacDonald, Phi: A magnet for consistently negative shot and goal differentials. 3. G Jonathan Quick, LA: Cup- and Conn Smythe-winning goalie just 14th in EVSV% last 3 years. 4. F Tyler Bozak, Tor: A passenger who has earned first-line role as by-product of Kessels success. 5. G Marc-Andre Fleury, Pit: EVSV% last 3 years sits behind Neuvirth, Garon, Budaj & Bryzgaolov. 6. D. Brooks Orpik, Was: Defensive defenseman ineffective at deterring scoring chances or zone time against. 7. F Ryan Callahan, NYR: Decent, hard-working second-line winger paid to contribute like a top-tier goal-scorer. 8. F Milan Lucic, Bos: Negative possession player in Bruins even-strength machine. 9. F Chris Stewart, Buf: Weak 5-on-5 player whose only discernible value is raw shooting talent. 10. F David Bolland, Fla: A third or fourth line center being paid to log first or second line minutes. Anlaytic Punching Bag: F Ryan Callahan, Tampa Bay Lightning Ryan Callahan seems to be the player that every hockey executive likes. He gives fantastic effort, he plays physical, hea€?s got a decent skill set, and you sense hea€?d rather die than lose a hockey game. These all, of course, are desirable qualities. And yet, many of them are intangible in nature. It doesna€?t render any of the above meaningless. But, if a playera€?s effort and physicality and will to win are so prominent, theya€?d likely factor into his underlying numbers. Therein lies the problem with Ryan Callahan. His underlying numbers scream mediocrity, particularly so for a player who the Tampa Bay Lightning decided to give a six-year, $34.8 million contract to this summer. Thata€?s first-line winger commitment, though Ia€?m extremely skeptical Callahan will ever produce to the level commensurate to his pay. Leta€?s really isolate on the forwards from 2011-2014 who compare closely to Ryan Callahana€?s level of production. I circled a bunch of forwards with similar Corsi%, Goal%, and per-sixty scoring rates, along with individual per-sixty shot-attempt rates. This is where Callahan sits: Anlaytic Punching Bag: Callahan Player Corsi% Goal% Points/60 Indiv. Attempts/60 Jason Chimera 48.3% 49.5% 1.7 14.1 Erik Cole 49.4% 49.5% 1.6 14.8 Jamie McGinn 48% 47.1% 1.6 14.5 Mason Raymond 47.3% 48.7% 1.6 13.2 Ales Hemsky 48.9% 46.7% 1.5 12.5 Ryan Callahan 49.6% 50.5% 1.5 15.5 Michael Frolik 53.1% 49.7% 1.5 17.0 Lauri Korpikoski 46.7% 48.4% 1.5 13.6 Antoine Vermette 49.7% 50.5% 1.5 10.0 Daniel Winnik 50.3% 49.7% 1.4 13.1 T.J. Galiardi 50.0% 42.9% 1.2 13.4 Tomas Kopecky 49.3% 43.4% 1.1 13.2 I think this is a decent crop of comparables for Callahan. As you can see, therea€?s no real difference in any of these players a€“ well, except for salary. Other than maybe Shane Doan and Erik Cole, most of these guys are signed to fairly reasonable contracts. None compare to Callahana€?s individually, of course. Naturally, ita€?s tough to figure out how Callahan took Tampa Bay for so much money. If the intangible aspect of Callahana€?s game was so impactful, wea€?d likely see something better than more or less breaking even in the shot and goal department for three years a€“ on good hockey teams, too. Analytic Punching Bag: D Andrew MacDonald, Philadelphia I thought about not even including MacDonald in this piece, because hea€?s a player the analytics community has been sort of hounding with a relentless fury that only Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Jack Johnson probably knows. The problem with MacDonald is simple: his team is exceptionally better with him off of the ice than on. This is, as youa€?d anticipate, abnormal for well-paid, big-minute defenders. We can illustrate this in the most basic of graphs, a Corsi On v. Corsi Off comparison for Andrew MacDonald over the last three seasons. Reading this is pretty simple: MacDonalda€?s teams at even-strength were significantly better with him off of the ice, and significantly worse with him on the ice. MacDonald was basically a magnet for opposition territorial domination. What makes this particularly concerning is that ita€?s hard to come with a legitimate defence for why MacDonald was so bad. He started over 48% of his shifts in the offensive zone over this stretch, a higher number than fellow defenders Marc-Edouard Vlasic, P.K Subban, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. His competition level (a weighted metric that takes into consideration the Corsi% of all opposition faced) was higher than average, but failed to crack the top-forty, and ranked lower than names like Duncan Keith, Victor Hedman, and Drew Doughty. I think therea€?s a fascinating discussion to be had about how to optimize Andrew MacDonald going forward, but Ia€?m almost certain it doesna€?t involve playing first-pairing minutes through the 2020 season. Analytic Poster Boy: D Chris Tanev, Vancouver Canucks Chris Taneva€?s an interesting player in that his underlying numbers scream full-time, top-four NHL defender, and yet the Vancouver Canucks appear a bit reluctant to commit to him long-term. I think part of it is due to the fact that he only has one full year of NHL experience, and the other part of it is probably tied into him sitting behind names like Alex Edler, Kevin Bieksa, and Dan Hamhuis. All three of those are household names. Chris Tanev, on the other hand, went undrafted and has logged all of 156 games at the NHL-level. The last three years of Tanev have been quietly excellent, though. Leta€?s go ahead and grab a quick list of defenders who have played at least 2000-minutes at even-strength over the last three years. We will set three parameters: the defender must have enjoyed better than break-even possession (i.e., a Corsi% above 50%), the defender must have enjoyed better than break-even goal-scoring (i.e., a Goal% above 50%), and the defender must have been a decent point-producer -- the average NHL defender from 2011-2014 averaged about 0.70 points per sixty minutes, so we will set our floor there. If we isolate for defensemen who only meet the above criteria, who are we left with? Poster Boy: Tanev Player Corsi% Goal% Points/60 Zdeno Chara 56.4% 60.5% 1.0 Erik Karlsson 55.1% 52.1% 1.5 Slava Voynov 55.1% 55.7% 0.9 Nick Leddy 54.9% 52.3% 0.9 Kevin Shattenkirk 54.8% 57.1% 1.0 Brent Seabrook 54.5% 55.1% 1.0 Alex Pietrangelo 54.3% 56.4% 1.0 Matt Niskanen 54.1% 59.8% 1.0 Duncan Keith 54% 54.7% 1.1 Kimmo Timonen 54% 52.5% 0.9 Dan Hamhuis 53.4% 58.7% 0.9 Jakub Kindl 53.3% 59% 0.9 Niklas Hjalmarsson 53.1% 53.9% 0.8 Dan Boyle 53.1% 53.2% 0.8 Joe Corvo 53% 52.7% 0.9 Niklas Kronwall 52.9% 51.2% 0.8 Paul Martin 52.6% 51.3% 0.8 Kris Letang 52.5% 58% 1.4 Kevin Bieksa 52.5% 51.7% 0.9 Jason Demers 52.4% 50.3% 0.8 Alex Goligoski 52% 53.6% 1 Christopher Tanev 52% 57.9% 0.7 Keith Yandle 51.8% 51.7% 1.1 P.K. Subban 51.2% 55.1% 0.9 Ryan McDonagh 51% 55% 0.9 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 50.5% 52.9% 0.9 Victor Hedman 50.3% 52% 1.2 This is where Tanev shines. With Tanev on the ice over those 2000-minutes, Vancouver earned 52% territorial control and nearly 58% of the goals. And, the decent scoring rate further suggests hea€?s positively involved in the run of play. Now, look at his comparables based on the parameters established. Ita€?s a group of first-pairing defenders and/or first-pairing defenders who have won a Norris Trophy. Any bets on whether or not Vancouvera€?s going to have to pay a lot more next summer, when they are back at the negotiating table with Taneva€?s agent? Analytic Poster Boy: G Jimmy Howard, Detroit Red Wings Jimmy Howarda€?s been recognized as a respectable starting goaltender for years now, but I think some ignore just how impactful hea€?s been for the Detroit Red Wings over the years. The teama€?s aging process hasna€?t been kind to some of their star players over the years, and I anticipate that they are going to have to rely a bit more on their goaltending prowess until they get back to where things once were at five-on-five. Howard, like Tanev above, compares extremely well to his peers over the last few seasons. In fact, other than the venerable Tuukka Rask and Henrik Lundqvist, no active goaltender with at least 2,400 minutes logged over the last three seasons has enjoyed a better even-strength save percentage than Jimmy Howard. For quick comparisons, note that Howarda€?s .936 fellow Team USA goaltenders Ryan Miller (.926) and Jonathan Quick (.931) both trail the Red Wings netminder. Now, Howard did experience a bit of a drop in performance in 2013-2014 by raw SV%, chiefly due to his .866 penalty kill SV% burying a very respectable .931 EVSV%. But, knowing what we know about the volatility of special teams and goaltendersa€? regular regression to the averages on the penalty kill, we can assume that Howarda€?s middling 2013-2014 SV% will likely return to his 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 numbers -- primarily because hea€?s still such a rock at even-strength. Cheap Nike Air Max 270 . Jacobs scored two in the first end, but Jahr briefly took charge with two in the second end and two more in the third. Jacobs, from Sault. Marie, Ont., gave Canada some breathing room, following his big fourth end by adding two more points in the fifth to go up 7-4. Wholesale Nike Air Max 270 . Theres little time for rest, too. The Flyers and Rangers play again Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden. Simmonds scored in the first period and twice more in the second for his first career post-season hat trick. Mason survived a busy first period and stopping 31 straight shots until Carl Hagelin scored late in the third. https://www.cheapnikeairmax270china.us/ . Virtanen opened the scoring at 6:45 of the first period, then gave Canada a two-goal lead with a power-play goal 1:03 into the second. Sweden cut the lead in half when Daniel Muzito Bagenda scored a power-play goal at 10:57 of the second. JOHANNESBURG, South Africa -- Prosecutors and lawyers for Oscar Pistorius have one last chance to convince a South African judge when they present closing arguments this week in the murder trial of the once-celebrated athlete who fatally shot his girlfriend, Reeva Steenkamp, through a toilet cubicle door in his home. On Thursday and Friday, both sides will summarize their versions of the shooting to Thokozile Masipa, the red-robed judge who will determine the fate of the double-amputee Olympic runner. Masipa has sat impassively through most proceedings since the globally televised trial began four months ago in a Pretoria courthouse, but legal experts say she may now, in this final stage, reveal insights into her thinking about the sensational case. "The judge will show where her allegiance lies once she starts asking questions," said Marius du Toit, a former prosecutor and now defence lawyer who is not involved in the trial. "The party that gets hammered by the judge when arguing is the party thats got the short end of the stick when it comes to the ruling." Masipa can interrogate prosecutor Gerrie Nel and chief defence lawyer Barry Roux on their explanations for the killing and evidence in the court record, which amounts to thousands of pages. The prosecution says Pistorius, 27, intentionally shot 29-year-old Steenkamp multiple times before dawn on Feb. 14, 2013 in a fit of anger after a fight. The defence counters that he fired by mistake, fearing for his life after thinking an intruder was in the toilet cubicle and Steenkamp was in the bedroom. Masipa has maintained an air of neutrality while overlooking the courtroom from her chair on a dais through weeks of testimony by dozens of witnesses. "Now the judges true colours will in fact be shown," said John Welch, a former high-ranking lawyer with South Africas national prosecutors office. "Many judges like to ask questions ... things that have bugged them or bothered them during the trial." Because South Africa has no trial by jury, Masipa will decide with tthe help of two legal assistants if Pistorius committed murder, is guilty of a negligent killing, or if he made a tragic error and should be acquitted. Nike Air Max 270 From China. The runner faces 25 years to life in prison if convicted of premeditated murder, and also would be sent to prison for years if guilty of murder without premeditation or culpable homicide. He faces three separate firearm charges, and pleaded not guilty to all four counts. The prosecution has accused Pistorius of being a hot-headed egotist who carried a gun everywhere he went, and alleges he twice shot a firearm in public before the Valentines Day killing. Pistorius defence has portrayed him as mentally fragile, a disabled man who lived in fear of crime and who was terrified when he stood on just his stumps in the dark and fired four shots into the toilet cubicle door. Before he killed Steenkamp, Pistorius was praised worldwide as a symbol of the triumph of determination over adversity, and he made history by running on his carbon-fiber running blades at the Olympics in 2012. Trial witnesses included Pistorius neighbours, friends, an ex-girlfriend, his agent and his physician, as well as a long list of forensic and ballistic specialists. At times, Pistorius vomited, wailed and sobbed in the courtroom, and a psychiatrist testified he was suffering from an anxiety disorder when he shot Steenkamp. The trial was postponed for a month while Pistorius was examined at a state mental facility. Masipa will adjourn the trial after arguments to consider her judgment, a delay that could be a week or over a month, according to various analysts. They say the burden is on the prosecution to leave no reasonable doubt in Masipas mind that Pistorius was intent on killing when he opened fire. Nel and Roux will have to summarize weeks of sometimes complex testimony into a convincing final explanation lasting just a few hours, according to former prosecutor Welch. He said: "A true lawyer is measured during the arguments because this is now when we get to the nitty-gritty of the matter." ' ' '

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